| | The signing of the Uruguay Round of GATT negotiations in Marrakesh was heralded as a victory which will trigger global welfare gains of up to $274 billion. These hypothetical, gains have been widely advertised by bodies such as the GATT, the OECD and the World Bank who have used them to put pressure on recalcitrant countries to 'sell' the importance of an agreed outcome from the Uruguay Round. However, the accuracy and reliability of the econometric models that are used to arrive at such figures have received little critical attention outside the community of economists and econometric modellers. Yet, any critique mounted by mainstream modellers remains largely within the neo-classical paradigm. While there are econometric practitioners whose analysis adopts a structuralist approach the complexity and the mathematical nature of econometric models creates a perceived barrier to understanding for non-economists which effectively deters detailed criticisms from 'outsiders' , a deterrent which is a powerful factor in the maintenance of the ideological and legitimating roles of neo-classical economic theory. This article plugs this gap by developing a critique of such models within a political economy framework from the point of view of a non-economist. |
