| | Based on some recent forecasts of world oil demand and price in the years up to 2000, this paper looks at the probable demand for OPEC oil, Nigeria's market shares, and its revenues from oil. This is done under four scenarios: continued weak markets, optimistic, OPEC successfully defends 'its market share' and total breakdown in current market arrangements. The results point to continued difficulties, especially up to 1990, and probably beyond. This increases the potential for greater social conflict, as tighter austerity measures are introduced. The glut once again highlights the futility of total dependence on oil. Oil which had masked bad economic policies in the past, can no longer be relied upon to play this dubious role. Increased emphasis on agricultural production, and some adjustments in the operation of the Nation's Public Finance are suggested, among other policies, to cope with the transition to a post oil-boom Nigeria. |
